When arable land is the limit: Paths for future livestock production - An example from Norway

Context: The global food system contributes significantly to environmental degradation, with livestock production driving greenhouse gas emissions and feed-food competition. Norway, with only 3.5 % arable land, faces challenges balancing food security with reducing environmental impacts. Objective: This study examines future livestock production strategies in Norway to evaluate their environmental sustainability and resource efficiency. The focus is on three scenarios for 2040: TrendProd (baseline projection), MoreProd (increased productivity with circular bioeconomy initiatives), and ChangeProd (circular livestock production prioritizing food production over feed use). Methods: Life cycle assessment was used to assess environmental impacts per kg of protein, complemented by resource efficiency evaluations through land use ratio (LUR) and nitrogen recycling index (NRI). Scenarios were analyzed at the national scale for their ability to supply animal-source foods (ASF) while reducing feed-food competition and enhancing biodiversity. Results and conclusions: TrendProd reflected current trends, resulting in significant overproduction of animal protein relative to population needs based on dietary recommendations, along with high environmental impacts. MoreProd achieved slightly lower climate impact per kg protein, reduced biodiversity loss, and neutral land use efficiency but increased overall land use. ChangeProd prioritized low-opportunity-cost biomass, enhancing biodiversity and resource efficiency while reducing total production. This would necessitate dietary shifts to maintain domestic production sufficiency. A combination of efficiency and sufficiency strategies, supported by comprehensive policies, is essential for sustainable livestock production. Significance: The findings highlight the potential for Norway to develop sustainable livestock systems that address environmental challenges while maintaining food security. The ChangeProd scenario provides a model for balancing food production with sustainability goals, offering insights for other countries facing similar challenges.