Pushing the envelope: empirical growth models for forests at change

Carl Vigren

doi:10.54612/a.7qt3hgmn6k

Pushing the envelope: empirical growth models for forests at change

Bidragets översatta titel: Att tänja gränserna : Empiriska Tillväxtmodeller för Skogar i Förändring

Carl Vigren

Institutionen för skoglig resurshushållning

Publikation: Avhandling › Doktorsavhandling

6 Nedladdningar

Sammanfattning

Globala klimatförändringar har lokal påverkan. Genom att utöka den empiriska skogsproduktionsmodellen PrognAus med en klimatanpassad modul för träds grundytetillväxt kunde vi framskrida enskiktade bestånd av tall (Pinus sylvestris L.), ek (Quercus spp.) samt deras blandning och visa latitudinellt ordnade nedgångar i den förväntade stående volymen år 2100 (artikel I). Förutsedda minskningar var allvarligare i tallbestånd än i ekbestånd; för ekbestånden allvarligare i steget mellan den historiska referensen och framtidsscenariot RCP 4.5 än för steget mellan RCP 4.5 och RCP 8.5, alltjämt som tallbestånden predikterades uppleva en minskning av samma storleksordning under båda stegen; samt allvarligare minskningar på lägre breddgrader än på högre latituder. För att vidare undersöka högupplösta rum- och tidsmässiga trender passade vi en statisk reducerad modell (SRM) på de framskridna bestånden och tillhörande klimatdata (artikel II). Vi simulerade årsvis de olika beståndstyperna för perioden 2018-2100 med 30-bågsekunders upplösning för stora delar av Europa, för att sedan jämföra utvecklingen med den historiska referensperioden 1923-2005. Tallbestånd förväntades uppleva betydande minskningar i deras bruttovolymproduktion under de framtida klimatscenarierna RCP 4.5 och RCP 8.5 jämfört med den historiska referensen. Ekbeståndens bruttovolymproduktion väntades minska i norra Europa men öka i vissa regioner i centrala och södra Europa. Artikel III utforskar istället hur en bonitetsindikator såsom skattad från upprepade luftburna laserskanningar hör samman med markfuktigheten såsom skattad av Ågren et al. (2021). En svag nedåtgående trend återfanns, även om variationen var stor. I artikel IV presenterar vi preliminära resultat angående möjligheten att nyttja upprepad laserskanning för att uppdatera eller prediktera volymökningen hos enskilda granar (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.).

Bidragets översatta titel	Att tänja gränserna : Empiriska Tillväxtmodeller för Skogar i Förändring
Originalspråk	Engelska
Kvalifikation	Doktor i filosofi
Förlag	Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Tryckta ISBN	978-91-8046-424-6
Elektroniska ISBN	978-91-8046-432-1
DOI	https://doi.org/10.54612/a.7qt3hgmn6k
Status	Publicerad - 2024

Nyckelord

LiDAR
Norway Spruce
Oak
Scots Pine
climate change
growth
productivity
remote sensing
site index

SLU-serie

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae Sueciae

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10.54612/a.7qt3hgmn6k

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title = "Pushing the envelope: empirical growth models for forests at change",

abstract = "Global climatic change has local impacts. By extending the empirical forest growth model for single trees PrognAus with a climate-sensitive module for basal area increment we forecast single-layered stands of Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Oak (Quercus spp.), and their mixture to show latitudinally ordered decreases in standing volume in the year 2100 (paper I). The forecast decreases were more severe for Scots Pine stand types than for Oak stand types; more severe between the historical reference and RCP 4.5 than the additional stress imposed by the RCP 8.5 scenario for the Oak stand type, whilst Scots Pine experienced a decrease of the same magnitude as between the historical reference and RCP 4.5; and more severe at lower latitudes than for higher latitudes. To investigate high-resolution spatiotemporal trends, we trained a static reduced model (SRM) on the forecast stands and their climatic data (paper II). We simulated the period 2018-2100 at 30-arcsecond resolution across Europe for all stand types to compare to the period 1923-2005. The Scots Pine stand type was predicted to experience substantial decreases in gross volume production relative to the historical scenario under the future scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The gross volume production of the Oak stand type was predicted to decrease in northern Europe but increase in some regions of central and southern Europe. In contrast, paper III develops a proxy for the site productivity of mixed coniferous forests based on repeat airborne laser scanning which is compared to derived values for soil moisture. Our proxy for site productivity showed a weak decline with increasing soil moisture, although variation was large. In paper IV, we present preliminary results of the potential in using high-density repeated airborne laser scanning for short-term predictions of volume increment in individual trees of Norway Spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst).",

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language = "English",

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