Narratives of the future: Farmers' navigation of uncertainty in adopting carbon farming schemes

There is growing interest in how farming practices can mitigate climate change by sequestering carbon and restoring soil health-known as carbon farming. Ultimately, the success of the carbon farming market depends on attracting farmers willing to enrol and adopt these practices. As of yet, we know little about the factors that stimulate or hinder farmer engagement with the carbon farming market. This paper contributes to filling this gap through a study of the factors that shape South African large scale farmers' narratives of the future and how such narratives impact farmers' perspectives on emerging carbon farming initiatives. Using semi-structured interviews with ten farmers, applying and modifying Vignoli et al.'s (2020) narrative framework, we examine farmers' future narratives in the South African thicket biome of the Eastern Cape province. Three future narratives are identified: 'keep fighting and innovate the business', 'stop fighting but keep the farm' and 'the future of the family farm (probably) ends with me'. Experiences, constraints, expectations and aspirations shape these narratives. Additionally, the study's findings show that environmental factors significantly impact future narratives and, consequently, the adoption of carbon farming practices. This study contributes to understanding how ecological awareness together with economic and social factors can drive agricultural decision-making.