Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of the population viability of an epixylic moss

5. Synthesis. Statements about the viability of populations should not be based on point estimates of log lambda(S). Instead, the full probability distribution of log lambda(S) should be used, which explicitly accounts for the hierarchically structured natural variability and uncertainty. This distribution allows estimating the risk for a population decline, or providing an estimate of the confidence in a statement about a decline. This quantitative information can be weighed against other interests. We expect this Bayesian approach to be especially useful in the viability analysis of natural populations experiencing environmental variability.