Expert-Based Ten-Year Forecast for Logging Machines and Systems in Sweden

The forest sector is a significant contributor to Swedish society but requires continuous improvements in logging operations. Implementing innovations in operations is dependent on advances in other sectors, since forest machine manufacturers have only a fraction of the development capacity of, e.g., car or truck manufacturers. The aim of this study was to identify the most promising logging-machine systems, with different innovations, for implementation within ten years. The Delphi method was used to gather expert views on the importance of criteria in their decision making, their expectations regarding developments in external factors, and the most promising machine systems. Environmental and social criteria were ranked higher than economic criteria, but the rankings were relatively close. A future with greater and more stringent regulation was expected, but with scope to improve operations through technological developments such as automation and remote control. There was interest in new machine systems, but the established system dominated. Of the expected innovations, renewable energy sources were ranked highly, along with the automation of the work elements that are easiest to automate. The study provides stakeholders with a basis for decision making regarding which technologies to evaluate and test in the future.