Do warmer winters change variability patterns of physical and chemical lake conditions in Sweden?

In this study, the effect of a warmer winter climate on variability patterns of physical and chemical lake conditions was examined by using monthly air temperature data from 72 meteorological Swedish sites, ice breakup data from 77 Swedish lakes and monthly data of 17 water chemical variables from 11 nutrient-poor Swedish reference lakes during 1988-2005. The results showed significantly increasing variations of lake ice breakup dates and nitrate concentrations over Sweden along with increasing winter air temperatures. Variability patterns of other water chemical variables were not affected by warmer winters. Nitrate concentrations increased their variability in spring and early summer not only between lakes but also within lakes, which was attributed to a climate-induced increase in spring nitrate concentrations in particular in southern Sweden, while summer nitrate concentrations remained rather constant and low all over Sweden (median 10 mu g l(-1)). Since nitrate concentrations play an important role for primary production, highly varying concentrations will be a challenge for biota to adapt.