African futures: a review of scenarios for Indigenous and local people and nature in Africa

There is global understanding of the use of scenarios in addressing continued environmental change in Africa. Scenarios are a powerful tool for exploring uncertainties posed by the Anthropocene. As such, there are increasing calls for the use of scenarios in participatory research to inform policy and decision making. However, very limited research has tackled the integration of Indigenous and local people in participatory scenario planning. This study is an attempt to review knowledge on existing research involving Indigenous and local people in scenario planning in Africa. To do so, we undertook a semi-systematic review of scenario planning for people and nature in Africa of 68 case studies. We found that most of the research on participatory scenarios for people and nature in Africa is undertaken and led by researchers affiliated with institutions outside of Africa and there is a lack of active participation of Indigenous and local communities (IPLC). Of those studies conducted, agriculture and economics are the most common topics covered in the scenarios developed. The findings from this study call for more integration of Indigenous peoples and local communities with their associated knowledge in visioning processes and scenario development and a more inclusive approach to working with researchers based on the African continent for enhanced agency, ownership, and access.