Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic-boreal CO2 uptake

Anna-Maria Virkkala; Brendan M. Rogers; Jennifer D. Watts; Kyle A. Arndt; Stefano Potter; Isabel Wargowsky; Edward A. G. Schuur; Craig R. See; Marguerite Mauritz; Julia Boike; M. Syndonia Bret-Harte; Eleanor J. Burke; Arden Burrell; Namyi Chae; Abhishek Chatterjee; Frederic Chevallier; Torben R. Christensen; Roisin Commane; Han Dolman; Colin W. Edgar; Bo Elberling; Craig A. Emmerton; Eugenie S. Euskirchen; Liang Feng; Mathias Gockede; Achim Grelle; Manuel Helbig; David Holl; Jarvi Jarveoja; Sergey V. Karsanaev; Hideki Kobayashi; Lars Kutzbach; Junjie Liu; Ingrid T. Luijkx; Efren Lopez-Blanco; Kyle Lunneberg; Ivan Mammarella; Maija E. Marushchak; Mikhail Mastepanov; Yojiro Matsuura; Trofim C. Maximov; Lutz Merbold; Gesa Meyer; Mats B. Nilsson; Yosuke Niwa; Walter Oechel; Paul I. Palmer; Sang-Jong Park; Frans-Jan W. Parmentier; Matthias Peichl; Wouter Peters; Roman Petrov; William Quinton; Christian Rodenbeck; Torsten Sachs; Christopher Schulze; Oliver Sonnentag; Vincent L. St Louis; Eeva-Stiina Tuittila; Masahito Ueyama; Andrej Varlagin; Donatella Zona; Susan M. Natali

doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5

Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic-boreal CO2 uptake

Anna-Maria Virkkala
, Brendan M. Rogers
, Jennifer D. Watts
, Kyle A. Arndt
, Stefano Potter
, Isabel Wargowsky
, Edward A. G. Schuur
, Craig R. See
, Marguerite Mauritz
, Julia Boike
, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte
, Eleanor J. Burke
, Arden Burrell
, Namyi Chae
, Abhishek Chatterjee
, Frederic Chevallier
, Torben R. Christensen
, Roisin Commane
, Han Dolman
, Colin W. Edgar

Bo Elberling, Craig A. Emmerton, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Liang Feng, Mathias Gockede, Achim Grelle, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Jarvi Jarveoja, Sergey V. Karsanaev, Hideki Kobayashi, Lars Kutzbach, Junjie Liu, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Efren Lopez-Blanco, Kyle Lunneberg, Ivan Mammarella, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Yojiro Matsuura, Trofim C. Maximov, Lutz Merbold, Gesa Meyer, Mats B. Nilsson, Yosuke Niwa, Walter Oechel, Paul I. Palmer, Sang-Jong Park, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Wouter Peters, Roman Petrov, William Quinton, Christian Rodenbeck, Torsten Sachs, Christopher Schulze, Oliver Sonnentag, Vincent L. St Louis, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Masahito Ueyama, Andrej Varlagin, Donatella Zona, Susan M. Natali

Department of Forest Ecology and Management

Publication: Contribution to journal › Journal article › peer-review

Abstract

The Arctic-Boreal Zone is rapidly warming, impacting its large soil carbon stocks. Here we use a new compilation of terrestrial ecosystem CO2 fluxes, geospatial datasets and random forest models to show that although the Arctic-Boreal Zone was overall an increasing terrestrial CO2 sink from 2001 to 2020 (mean +/- standard deviation in net ecosystem exchange, -548 +/- 140 Tg C yr(-1); trend, -14 Tg C yr(-1); P < 0.001), more than 30% of the region was a net CO2 source. Tundra regions may have already started to function on average as CO2 sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. When fire emissions are factored in, the increasing Arctic-Boreal Zone sink is no longer statistically significant (budget, -319 +/- 140 Tg C yr(-1); trend, -9 Tg C yr(-1)), and the permafrost region becomes CO2 neutral (budget, -24 +/- 123 Tg C yr(-1); trend, -3 Tg C yr(-1)), underscoring the importance of fire in this region.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	188-195
Number of pages	18
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	15
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5
Publication status	Published - 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2025.

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10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5

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Virkkala, A.-M., Rogers, B. M., Watts, J. D., Arndt, K. A., Potter, S., Wargowsky, I., Schuur, E. A. G., See, C. R., Mauritz, M., Boike, J., Bret-Harte, M. S., Burke, E. J., Burrell, A., Chae, N., Chatterjee, A., Chevallier, F., Christensen, T. R., Commane, R., Dolman, H., ... Natali, S. M. (2025). Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic-boreal CO2 uptake. Nature Climate Change, 15(2), 188-195. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5

@article{856d6dfbad69447e9de99935bc34f5a7,

title = "Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic-boreal CO2 uptake",

abstract = "The Arctic-Boreal Zone is rapidly warming, impacting its large soil carbon stocks. Here we use a new compilation of terrestrial ecosystem CO2 fluxes, geospatial datasets and random forest models to show that although the Arctic-Boreal Zone was overall an increasing terrestrial CO2 sink from 2001 to 2020 (mean +/- standard deviation in net ecosystem exchange, -548 +/- 140 Tg C yr(-1); trend, -14 Tg C yr(-1); P < 0.001), more than 30\% of the region was a net CO2 source. Tundra regions may have already started to function on average as CO2 sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. When fire emissions are factored in, the increasing Arctic-Boreal Zone sink is no longer statistically significant (budget, -319 +/- 140 Tg C yr(-1); trend, -9 Tg C yr(-1)), and the permafrost region becomes CO2 neutral (budget, -24 +/- 123 Tg C yr(-1); trend, -3 Tg C yr(-1)), underscoring the importance of fire in this region.",

author = "Anna-Maria Virkkala and Rogers, \{Brendan M.\} and Watts, \{Jennifer D.\} and Arndt, \{Kyle A.\} and Stefano Potter and Isabel Wargowsky and Schuur, \{Edward A. G.\} and See, \{Craig R.\} and Marguerite Mauritz and Julia Boike and Bret-Harte, \{M. Syndonia\} and Burke, \{Eleanor J.\} and Arden Burrell and Namyi Chae and Abhishek Chatterjee and Frederic Chevallier and Christensen, \{Torben R.\} and Roisin Commane and Han Dolman and Edgar, \{Colin W.\} and Bo Elberling and Emmerton, \{Craig A.\} and Euskirchen, \{Eugenie S.\} and Liang Feng and Mathias Gockede and Achim Grelle and Manuel Helbig and David Holl and Jarvi Jarveoja and Karsanaev, \{Sergey V.\} and Hideki Kobayashi and Lars Kutzbach and Junjie Liu and Luijkx, \{Ingrid T.\} and Efren Lopez-Blanco and Kyle Lunneberg and Ivan Mammarella and Marushchak, \{Maija E.\} and Mikhail Mastepanov and Yojiro Matsuura and Maximov, \{Trofim C.\} and Lutz Merbold and Gesa Meyer and Nilsson, \{Mats B.\} and Yosuke Niwa and Walter Oechel and Palmer, \{Paul I.\} and Sang-Jong Park and Parmentier, \{Frans-Jan W.\} and Matthias Peichl and Wouter Peters and Roman Petrov and William Quinton and Christian Rodenbeck and Torsten Sachs and Christopher Schulze and Oliver Sonnentag and \{St Louis\}, \{Vincent L.\} and Eeva-Stiina Tuittila and Masahito Ueyama and Andrej Varlagin and Donatella Zona and Natali, \{Susan M.\}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2025.",

year = "2025",

doi = "10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5",

language = "English",

volume = "15",

pages = "188--195",

journal = "Nature Climate Change",

issn = "1758-678X",

publisher = "Nature Research",

number = "2",

}

Virkkala, A-M, Rogers, BM, Watts, JD, Arndt, KA, Potter, S, Wargowsky, I, Schuur, EAG, See, CR, Mauritz, M, Boike, J, Bret-Harte, MS, Burke, EJ, Burrell, A, Chae, N, Chatterjee, A, Chevallier, F, Christensen, TR, Commane, R, Dolman, H, Edgar, CW, Elberling, B, Emmerton, CA, Euskirchen, ES, Feng, L, Gockede, M, Grelle, A, Helbig, M, Holl, D, Jarveoja, J, Karsanaev, SV, Kobayashi, H, Kutzbach, L, Liu, J, Luijkx, IT, Lopez-Blanco, E, Lunneberg, K, Mammarella, I, Marushchak, ME, Mastepanov, M, Matsuura, Y, Maximov, TC, Merbold, L, Meyer, G, Nilsson, MB, Niwa, Y, Oechel, W, Palmer, PI, Park, S-J, Parmentier, F-JW, Peichl, M, Peters, W, Petrov, R, Quinton, W, Rodenbeck, C, Sachs, T, Schulze, C, Sonnentag, O, St Louis, VL, Tuittila, E-S, Ueyama, M, Varlagin, A, Zona, D & Natali, SM 2025, 'Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic-boreal CO2 uptake', Nature Climate Change, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 188-195. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5

TY - JOUR

T1 - Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic-boreal CO2 uptake

AU - Virkkala, Anna-Maria

AU - Rogers, Brendan M.

AU - Watts, Jennifer D.

AU - Arndt, Kyle A.

AU - Potter, Stefano

AU - Wargowsky, Isabel

AU - Schuur, Edward A. G.

AU - See, Craig R.

AU - Mauritz, Marguerite

AU - Boike, Julia

AU - Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia

AU - Burke, Eleanor J.

AU - Burrell, Arden

AU - Chae, Namyi

AU - Chatterjee, Abhishek

AU - Chevallier, Frederic

AU - Christensen, Torben R.

AU - Commane, Roisin

AU - Dolman, Han

AU - Edgar, Colin W.

AU - Elberling, Bo

AU - Emmerton, Craig A.

AU - Euskirchen, Eugenie S.

AU - Feng, Liang

AU - Gockede, Mathias

AU - Grelle, Achim

AU - Helbig, Manuel

AU - Holl, David

AU - Jarveoja, Jarvi

AU - Karsanaev, Sergey V.

AU - Kobayashi, Hideki

AU - Kutzbach, Lars

AU - Liu, Junjie

AU - Luijkx, Ingrid T.

AU - Lopez-Blanco, Efren

AU - Lunneberg, Kyle

AU - Mammarella, Ivan

AU - Marushchak, Maija E.

AU - Mastepanov, Mikhail

AU - Matsuura, Yojiro

AU - Maximov, Trofim C.

AU - Merbold, Lutz

AU - Meyer, Gesa

AU - Nilsson, Mats B.

AU - Niwa, Yosuke

AU - Oechel, Walter

AU - Palmer, Paul I.

AU - Park, Sang-Jong

AU - Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.

AU - Peichl, Matthias

AU - Peters, Wouter

AU - Petrov, Roman

AU - Quinton, William

AU - Rodenbeck, Christian

AU - Sachs, Torsten

AU - Schulze, Christopher

AU - Sonnentag, Oliver

AU - St Louis, Vincent L.

AU - Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina

AU - Ueyama, Masahito

AU - Varlagin, Andrej

AU - Zona, Donatella

AU - Natali, Susan M.

PY - 2025

Y1 - 2025

N2 - The Arctic-Boreal Zone is rapidly warming, impacting its large soil carbon stocks. Here we use a new compilation of terrestrial ecosystem CO2 fluxes, geospatial datasets and random forest models to show that although the Arctic-Boreal Zone was overall an increasing terrestrial CO2 sink from 2001 to 2020 (mean +/- standard deviation in net ecosystem exchange, -548 +/- 140 Tg C yr(-1); trend, -14 Tg C yr(-1); P < 0.001), more than 30% of the region was a net CO2 source. Tundra regions may have already started to function on average as CO2 sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. When fire emissions are factored in, the increasing Arctic-Boreal Zone sink is no longer statistically significant (budget, -319 +/- 140 Tg C yr(-1); trend, -9 Tg C yr(-1)), and the permafrost region becomes CO2 neutral (budget, -24 +/- 123 Tg C yr(-1); trend, -3 Tg C yr(-1)), underscoring the importance of fire in this region.

AB - The Arctic-Boreal Zone is rapidly warming, impacting its large soil carbon stocks. Here we use a new compilation of terrestrial ecosystem CO2 fluxes, geospatial datasets and random forest models to show that although the Arctic-Boreal Zone was overall an increasing terrestrial CO2 sink from 2001 to 2020 (mean +/- standard deviation in net ecosystem exchange, -548 +/- 140 Tg C yr(-1); trend, -14 Tg C yr(-1); P < 0.001), more than 30% of the region was a net CO2 source. Tundra regions may have already started to function on average as CO2 sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. When fire emissions are factored in, the increasing Arctic-Boreal Zone sink is no longer statistically significant (budget, -319 +/- 140 Tg C yr(-1); trend, -9 Tg C yr(-1)), and the permafrost region becomes CO2 neutral (budget, -24 +/- 123 Tg C yr(-1); trend, -3 Tg C yr(-1)), underscoring the importance of fire in this region.

UR - https://res.slu.se/id/publ/140494

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5

DO - 10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85217262664

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 15

SP - 188

EP - 195

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 2

ER -

Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic-boreal CO2 uptake

Abstract

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