Values and costs of emergency stocks of agricultural inputs for enhancing food security in Sweden

Emergency stocks are established to secure food supplies in the event of crisis and war. The net value of an emergency stock of an agricultural input depends on the cost of storing and the production value of the input in the case of a crisis event. In this study, such net values are calculated for five agricultural inputs (fuel, nitrogen fertilizer, seeds, pesticides and protein feed) for a crisis with a 50% reduction in the supply of inputs. The production value of each input is calculated using the price elasticity of demand for inputs and the cost of stocks is estimated through interviews with industry-specific experts. Results from the qualitative analyses show that farmers buying the inputs always gain from the use of emergency stocks, while the effect on sellers is determined by relative changes in prices and quantities with and without releasing the stock in the crisis event. The estimated cost of stockpiling as a percentage of the input price without a crisis varies between 5% (pesticides) and 14% (diesel fuel). The results of a 50% reduction in the available supply of each input reveal large variations in the farmers' and sellers' net value of emergency stocks in the event of a rapid liquidation: between 0.08 billion euros (pesticides) and 0.59 billion euros (diesel fuel). However, stock disposal can result in lower profits for sellers of the inputs. A comparison of different mechanisms show that any losses can be compensated and provide net revenues for the stock owner. Furthermore, the net value for each input decreases with the length of the period between the stock build-up and crisis. The cost of holding emergency stocks arises every year, while the economic value materializes in the year of a crisis. This is relevant for rebuilding civil defence in a broader sense. This highlights the importance of timing stockpiling for effective food preparedness.