Vägar till lönsam nöt- och lammköttsproduktion

Scenarios for profitable beef and lamb production are scrutinized in two planning conditions. In “Cheap existing resources” it is supposed that suitable buildings, fences, and machinery with no opportunity cost are available and that the farmer is satisfied with 100 SEK per working-hour. In “New resources and market prices” investments in new buildings, fences, and machinery as well as a stipulated farm-worker wage of 170 SEK per hour are supposed. In both cases it is assumed that the opportunity cost of land is zero after the de-coupling of the EU area-based income support. It is also assumed that all animal premiums will become de-coupled but the environmental allowances for ley and seminatural pastures remain. The results suggest that even relatively small herds (e.g. 20-30 suckle-cows or 50-100 ewes) can have satisfactory profitability in the case of “Cheap existing resources”. If it is possible to have more heads in the scope of cheap existing resources the profitability might be good, especially if high environmental allowances are received for semi-natural pastures or organic production. In the case of “New resources and market prices” it is necessary to have at least 150-200 suckle-cows or 400-500 ewes and strongly reduce the costs of new buildings in order to reach full cost recovery. In land with environmental allowances and no opportunity costs extensive silage and pasture production results in lower costs of feed than more intense production with use of commercial fertilizers and high grazing pressure. However, beef production based on extensive feed production is very land demanding and would become badly effected if improved profitability in, e.g., grain or bio-energy production would increase the opportunity cost of land. Intensive lamb production is not so badly influenced as extensive suckle-cow based beef production. Lamb production with slaughter in spring and early summer is more profitable than production with slaughter in autumn thanks to much higher lamb prices during the second quarter of the year. Spring and summer lamb production can give a remuneration for a fulltime annual work of 400 000 SEK. The corresponding amount for beef production is generally lower. In “New resources and market-prices” there is a tendency to better profitability in summer calving and bull finishing than in winter calving and steer finishing. In “Cheap existing resources” winter calving and steers are at least as good as summer calving and bulls, especially on farms with much semi-natural pastures or ecological production.