Using fuzzy cognitive mapping to assess the sustainability impacts of transitioning to pasture-fed production in the UK beef sector

One hundred percent pasture-fed beef production has been suggested as a promising approach for sustainable ruminant farming, due to the potential benefits that can accrue across a range of sustainability domains. This study aimed to investigate the impacts across the four domains of sustainability of a wholesale switch from conventional to 100% pasture-fed beef production in the UK. We used fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) as a method for extracting knowledge from multiple stakeholders to create representative systems models of both conventional and pasture-based beef production systems. We then conducted a scenario analysis to assess how a switch to a pasture-fed system could affect components of sustainability in the UK beef sector. The FCMs indicated that vegetation quality, grass use efficiency, and soil health were central components of the pasture-fed approach, while economic and regulatory aspects, and climate change targets were more central to mainstream production approaches. The most marked changes under the 100% conversion scenario were an increase in income from subsidies (27.3%) in line with 'public money for public goods', a decrease in ability to export beef (unless advice to reduce consumption of animal protein is followed) (23.5%), a decrease in land used for farming vs other uses (e.g., natural capital) (11.23%), and a decrease in the use of feed from agricultural co/byproducts (7.5%), freeing up these feed sources for more sustainable monogastric production. Therefore, the mapping and scenario analysis suggests that while upscaling the pasture-fed approach may reduce productivity, it would likely increase public goods provision and reduce feed-food competition in the UK.