The infinitely worried forest owner key biotopes and forest certification in a Faustmann model

In this note, we consider a case when a forestry property may lose its market value through "political risk", illustrated here by it being classified as containing a key biotope. If a key biotope is found on a forest property in Sweden, the wood is almost impossible to sell. We show how the Faustmann formula is modified in this case and identify a "balance sheet" effect and a shortened rotation period. The theory seems to have some empirical support, given observed changes in bank lending contracts and alleged changes in forester's behavior to reduce the "political risk".