Swedish Forest Harvest Level Considering Demand of Biomass for Energy Purposes

This paper presents the development and demonstration of an approach for incorporating decisions concerning forest management within the framework of a TIMES energy system model. The presented model explicitly incorporates a number of long-term applicable forest harvest trajectories, thereby endogenously linking decisions concerning harvest levels with the development of the energy system. The operation of the model is demonstrated by evaluating the optimal long-term harvesting level of Swedish forests for the development of the bioenergy and forest industry sectors. The experimental results suggest that in the short term (between 2010 and 2035), an increased national forest harvest level would be beneficial for the joint development of the two sectors. Such a short-term increase in harvest levels of forest biomass sources would ensure an adequate and reliable supply of biomass sources for the expansion of the two sectors. However, in the long term (between 2070 and 2100), the endogenously computed forest harvest level stabilized at a reference harvest level corresponding to a continuation of the current trend in forest harvest levels. While the emphasis of this paper is on the methodological development of the model, the experimental results highlights the importance of considering cross-sectorial implications when assessing the future developments of the bioenergy and forest industrial sectors.