Modelling the risks of Nymphoides peltata spread in Swedish lakes

Species distribution modelling is a valuable tool for identifying areas most at risk of the spread of potentially harmful species. Here we model the environmental factors governing the distribution of a harmful species of concern that is currently found in Sweden at only a limited number of locations: the aquatic macrophyte N. peltata (sjögull). The most important factors determining risk of establishment are water chemistry (sufficient amounts of calcium is required), temperature (the species is partly limited by colder temperatures in Sweden) and connectivity to other water bodies. The results how that there are potentially a large number of lakes in mid to southern Sweden where N. peltata could establish populations, with undesirable consequences for biodiversity and recreation.