Modelling probability of snow and wind damage in Scots pine stands using tree characteristics

Predictions of damage risk from snow and wind at sites using tree characteristics of Scots pine(Pinus sylvestris I,.), were made using a subset of data from permanent sample plots within the Swedish National Forest Inventory (NFI). The plots were sampled twice at five-year intervals between 1983 and 1992. A logistic risk assessment model was developed using data originating from 286 plots, dominated by Scots pine (> 65% of basal area), within one county situated in the boreal zone in northern Sweden (Vasterbotten). The model was evaluated with NFI-data from two other counties, one adjacent to Vasterbotten (Vastemorrland, 99 plots), which is also in the boreal zone, and one (Kalmar, 138 plots) in the hemi-boreal zone in southern Sweden. In each plot, measurements at first inventory of tree characteristics for the largest undamaged sample tree, and measurements at second inventory of damage from snow and wind on all sample trees were used to develop a logistic model that predicts the damage probability for each site. The best predictors were upper diameter( lid, diameter at 3 or 5 m) and the ratio of height/diameter at breast height (rhd). According to the model calculations, the overall damage probability never exceeded 0.26 for any of the sample plots used for model development. At a given ud the probability of damage is higher for a site with trees of low rhd. The fit of the model was better for the adjacent Vastemorrland county than for the southern county, Kalmar. This inferior predictability was explained by differences in tree characteristics between Kalmar and the other counties. The results show that it is possible to predict damage from snow and wind at a site by using only single tree characteristics. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.