Future Wood Availability in Europe in Light of Climate and Energy Policy and Geopolitical Developments-A Wood Resource Balance-Based Assessment

The amended European Union (EU) Renewable Energy Directive-in aiming to increase the share of renewable energy in overall energy consumption-promotes an increased demand for wood, while the EU's updated Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation sets ambitious, binding national targets for the increase in net greenhouse gas removals that could restrict the supply of wood. Additionally, the ongoing war in Ukraine has directly affected the availability of woody biomass in Europe through the EU's import ban on timber and timber products from Russia and Belarus. This paper provides an in-depth comparative analysis of sources and uses of woody biomass in four European regions in light of these recent climate and energy policies and geopolitical developments. The analysis indicates significantly underestimated reported removals in three of the four European regions studied. Further, projections suggest policy incoherence between current climate and energy objectives until 2030 in all four regions, as fellings increase at a faster rate than net annual increment in all four regions, decreasing the forest carbon sink and thus making it all but impossible to reach the 2030 target of the LULUCF regulation. However, between 2030 and 2040, energy-related fellings could decrease in regions north and west, while they could continue to grow in regions east and south, albeit at a lower rate.