Does rural out-migration contribute to cropland-use intensification transition? Evidence from cropping farms in China

Understanding the transition of cropland use from labor-intensive to capital-intensive is crucial for sustaining food supply in the context of rural labor shortage driven by China's rapid urbanization. Using household-level panel data from China's National Fixed-Point Survey (2003-2021) and an instrumental-variable estimation strategy that uses village-level out-migration rates excluding the focal household as instruments, we explore the correlation between rural out-migration and cropland use change. The results show that rural out-migration reduces per-household cropland area, lowers the proportion of cropland allocated for highly labor-intensive crops, and decreased the share of highly capital-intensive crops. Notably, the decline in share of highly capital-intensive crops is concentrated among households that rely predominantly on non-agricultural income. These outcomes suggest that rural out-migration has impeded the anticipated shift toward capital-intensive cropland use, owing to heterogeneous household behaviors: non-agricultural households tend to allocate remittances toward non-farm consumption rather than agricultural investment, whereas agricultural households face scale constraints that limit capital investment. We propose targeted policies, including enhanced support for agricultural machinery and land consolidation for agricultural households, as well as measures to promote more efficient land-use arrangements among non-agricultural households, in order to advance capital-intensive cropland use and reduce land-use inefficiency and abandonment.